World fertilizer useIt remains to be seen what impact the most recent developments in the global economy may have on world fertilizer consumption. According to IFA estimates made earlier this year, growth in fertilizer consumption was expected to expand despite low agricultural commodity prices. Over the next five years, it was forecast that, worldwide, fertilizer consumption overall would grow by 2.2% per annum. The greatest increase is expected in consumption of potash, partly because of its lower base levels and partly in response to the significant switch from cereals to oilseeds. As ever, this global figure obscures wide regional differences.
Whereas consumption in Western Europe is likely to continue its slow decline of recent years, demand in Central Europe is buoyant, with Poland accounting for 45% of all fertilizer use in the region. Cereal production is likely to increase despite the obvious difficulties and delays in reform, and the forecast for potash use in the region, to the 2002/2003 season, is an average, annual percentage increase of 8.3%.
Current use of fertilizer in the Former Soviet Union is less than one-fifth that of ten years ago but levels are expected to rise, with agricultural development generally being closely linked to the pace of land reform. In the Near East, the pressure for food from the rapidly expanding population is likely to keep fertilizer demand growing strongly at around 3% per annum to 2002. This figure relates also to potash although total consumption of potash is far lower than that for nitrogen. A similar situation exists in South Asia where population pressure is high and nitrogen use is almost nine times that of potash. Here fertilizer consumption overall is expected to be in the region of 5% over the next few years, with demand for potash doubling that figure.
Demand in Japan and South Korea is expected to fall but elsewhere in the region, notably China and Vietnam, demand for potash is expected to rise by nearly 8% per annum. Fertilizer consumption in those countries in South East Asia, which are undergoing severe currency fluctuations, is likely to improve only when economic conditions are more settled.
In North America, soybean planting is continuing to increase, as is the planting of transgenic crops. Among all nutrients, fertilizer consumption in the USA is likely to rise whereas in Canada a slight fall is forecast.