![]() international fertilizer correspondent No 8 |
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Feed the soil to feed the people,
the IPI jubilee News |
"Feed the soil to feed
the people"
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Global population growth and urbanization history and forecast |
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The Congress, celebrating 50 years of IPI, had the following aims:
Representatives/speakers from all major international agricultural/fertilizer-related associations and research institutions such as FAO, IFA, IFDC, IFPRI, IRRI, OECD, PPI were present. Eighteen oral presentations, two panel discussions and some 100 posters comprehensively covered the theme "Feed the soil to feed the people". Based on the response of the participants, the congress can be rated as a great success.
In his opening speech the Director of IPI reminded the audience that the global population has increased from about 2.5 billion, when IPI was founded in 1952, to currently 6 billion and will grow further to more than 8 billion 25 years from now. Most of the growth is in developing countries where there is also a considerable shift from a rural to an urbanized population. This in itself increases the demand for food because it changes people's eating habits. Looking at the production side, the natural resources of land and water can no longer be expanded without occupying marginal land. The only solution is to seek increased productivity from land that is already being cultivated but this has to be set within the context of decreasing per capita availability of land. In the fifty year lifetime of IPI, this has decreased in developed countries from 0.66 ha to 0.47 ha whereas in developing countries it has decreased from 0.30 ha to 0.16 ha, and will inevitably decrease further. A similar serious situation applies to the availability of water.
Global cereal production and fertiliser use |
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In the past, there was an almost linear increase in global cereal output which coped nicely with demand from an increasing population. However, this correlation appears to have ceased. More recent data show a stagnating or even decreasing global cereal output. Adverse climatic conditions such as droughts in the major cereal producing countries (North America, Australia, parts of Africa and India) and floods in parts of China and Europe are among the reasons. Another is that alternative cash crops are replacing some of the wheat and rice grown in China. Inadequate fertilizer use is undoubtedly another factor that affects cereal output.
Coverage of nutrient removal by crops with mineral fertilizers |
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There has been a marked change in fertilizer use over the last 25 years. When IPI celebrated its Silver Jubilee, the use of N, P and K fertilizers in developed countries was, overall, higher than the removal of nutrients in harvested crops. Economic constraints and ecological considerations have overturned this pattern and the use of fertilizers no longer replaces the nutrients removed in crops. This refers in particular to the use of potash. Developing countries show the reverse trend. There has been an improving coverage of nutrient removal by the use of mineral fertilizers. Again, the weak point is the use of potash. Although potash consumption has steadily increased over the last 25 years, K removal by crops exceeds by far K replenishment with mineral fertilizers. Other K sources are not enough to fill the gap and hence widespread soil K mining is inevitable.